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LaMMA monthly forecast

          Last update: May 19th 2017

Seasonal predictions for June-August (TUSCANY):

 

JUNE: near normal temperature and rainy days (high confidence)

JULY: near normal temperature and rainy days (medium confidence) 

AUGUST: near normal temperature and rainy days (low confidence) 

  JUNE JULY

 

AUGUST

 

TEMPERATURE near normal near normal near normal
     
RAINY DAYS  near normal near normal near normal

 

DescriptionJune - July: normal circulation patters expected over central-southern Europe (especially central-eastern part) because of climatological position of central african branch of the Hadley Cell; hence near normal temperature and rainy days are predicted in Italy and central-eastern Europe (1981-2010 mean). August: normal temperature and rainy days expected (based on CFS model output). 
 
Experimental seasonal forecasts, updated monthly. 
 
 
Based period: 1981-2010

Climate indices and teleconnections considered 

AMO, ENSO, IRI/ECMWF/NOAA/NASA projections ,Northern Emisphere SST, solar activity, Polar vortex behavour (both Strat-Tropo), MJO, IOD, african/indian monsoon. 

  • SOLAR ACTIVITY: in the next three months solar activity is expected to produce an average of 20 sunsposts/day and some spotless days. Ap index below 10 (5.5). 
  • ENSO: neutral conditions through the end of June. A weak El Niño is likely to return starting from mid July-August. 
  • MJO: phases 1-2-3-8 will be probably the most active in the next 30 days (GFS based).
  • INDIAN MONSOON: the two main indian weather services (Skymet and IMD) forecast a near normal monsoon season (96-104% of rain expected over the whole country).  
  • INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE: neutral conditions expected in next coming months. 
  • ITCZ + WEST AFRICAN MONSOON: ITCZ near normal latitute in the first decade of May. No significant anomalies expected in June.  
  • POLAR VORTEX: NA
  • AMO: SST anomalies over North Atlantic increase in April, attending on +0.289°C. It is likley a further reduction of the anomalies in June because of a further reinforce of SST "blob" between Iceland and Terranova. 
  • SST Mediterranean: normal Mediterranean dipole. 

Anomalies classification

For further informations about the legend click here

based period: 1981-2010

TEMPERATURE

    above average: anomaly > +1.0 °C ;
    near normal: anomaly bewteen -1.0 and +1.0 °C ;
    below normal: anomaly < -1 °C) ;

RAINY DAYS 

    above average: > +2 wet days/month than normal ;
    near normal:  between -2 and +2 wet days/month than normal ;
    below normal: < -2 wet days/month than normal ;
Last updated: 22/05/2017